When I first arrived in Japan in 1974, international investors widely expected the country to collapse, a casualty of the overnight quadrupling of oil prices to $12 and the global recession that followed. Japanese borrowers were only able to tap foreign debt markets by paying a 200 basis point premium to the market, a condition that came to be known as “Japan Rates.”
Hedge fund manager, Kyle Bass, says that the despised Japan rates are about to return. There is nothing less than one quadrillion yen of public debt in Japan today. A perennial trade surplus powered high corporate and personal savings rates during the eighties and nineties, allowing these agencies to sell their debt entirely to domestic, mostly captive investors Those days are coming to a close. The problem is that the working age population peaked in Japan last year, and the country is entering a long demographic nightmare (see population pyramids below).
This year, the Ministry of Finance will see ¥40 trillion in receivables, the same figure seen in 1985, against ¥97 trillion in spending. Interest expense, debt service, and social security spending alone exceed receivables. The tipping point is close, and when it hits, Japan will have to borrow from abroad in size. Foreign investors all too aware of this distressed income statement will almost certainly demand big risk premiums, possibly several hundred basis points. That’s when the sushi hits the fan.
To top it all, no one in living memory in Japan has ever lost money in the JGB market, so expectations are unsustainably high. Need I mention that Japan’s Q2 GDP growth came in at an arthritic 0.1 %, not exactly a performance to run up the flagpole?
Both the JGB market and the yen can only collapse in the face of these developments. I know that the short JGB trade has killed off more hedge fund managers than all the irate former investors and divorce lawyers in the world combined. Read about my own recent, futile attempt to sell these markets by clicking here at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-6-2010.html .
But what Kyle says makes too much sense, and the day of reckoning for this long despised financial instrument may be upon us. How much downside risk can there be in shorting a ten year coupon of under 1%. I have included a breakdown of Kyle’s portfolio below, which you should note, has absolutely no equities anywhere in the world. Is Kyle trying to show us the writing on the wall?
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
Here at MakeUseOf, we have recently had a revelation when it comes to using PayPal to pay staff writers: it turns out you can save massive amounts of money in PayPal fees by using the bulk batch payment manager (known as Mass Payment) rather than sending separate Paypal online payments.
We had no idea we would save quite so much by using this method. And because we know other people will benefit from using the bulk payment option, we felt we had to spread the word. We know here’s a lot of people out there making online Paypal wage payments and possibly paying unnecessary fees.
So this is what Mass Payment is all about.
By the way, don’t get too cranky with PayPal for these fees. Ever seen the fees banks charge to make international transfers? PayPal are really just passing on bank fees and other processing fees to do with single payments. You’re no doubt saving PayPal money too by suggesting your boss make Mass Payments.
So, let’s talk it through step-by-step so you can simply hand your boss this article and they’ll know exactly what they need to do. While you’re there, mention that by using Mass Payment their accounting records will be much easier to navigate.
Firstly, the sender will need to have a verified PayPal Premier or Business account. It’s easy to upgrade an existing account to Premier or Business, but it does require verifying the email address and bank account used with the sender’s PayPal account.
Secondly, the sender will need to ensure they have sufficient funds in their PayPal account. Credit cards can’t be used for Mass Payments.
Mass Payments can be made to any email address – if a recipient doesn’t have a PayPal account using that exact email address, the address can be easily added to an existing PayPal account. So, all the sender needs is to know the email address and how much they want to send. Senders should also note that all payments in a Mass Payment need to be made in the same currency as each other.
The sender needs to create a tab delimited file containing the email addresses, currency and amounts to be paid. From Excel, this is something you can create easily by saving as “Text (Tab Delimited)”. Put email addresses in the first column, payment amounts in the second column and the currency code in the third column (see PayPal for the codes). An optional fourth column lets you put in some sort of identifier for each person for your own accounting records. Another optional fifth column allows you to send a personal message to that recipient.
To access Mass Payment, click the “Mass Payment” link at the bottom of the page when you’re logged in to PayPal.
This takes you to an overview of Mass Payment, including guides, fees, codes and examples. Click on “Make a Mass Payment” to get started.
The Mass Payment file upload is straightforward and easy to use. It’s simple to add a generic subject and body to the email sent with all payments. Note that it’s also possible to use the PayPal API to send Mass Payments, so if you’re a larger company (or you just prefer automation) there’s that option available to you as well.
Mass Payments are processed instantly and available for recipients to use or withdraw immediately.
A word of caution: Ensure your recipient is trustworthy and has fulfilled their service or delivered their goods because PayPal Mass Payments can’t be cancelled.
If the recipient has a personal PayPal account in the same country as the sender (and the sender is not using a credit or debit card to make the payment), sending payments to them is free the regular way. If the recipient has a Premier or Business account, or they are in a different country to the sender, the fees are lower with a Mass Payment. With regular payments, the sender can choose whether to pay the fees or let the recipient pay them, however with Mass Payment the sender must pay the PayPal fees. So, discuss with the recipients which method is best before you send a Mass Payment.
If you use PayPal regularly, check out these other MakeUseOf articles on Paypal:
- 9 Tools PayPal Users Should Know About
- How To Keep Your PayPal Account Safe From Hackers
- PayPal Fee Calculator
If you’re making regular international PayPal payments to people who you know you owe money to, this is definitely the way to go. Get set up now and save your team money!
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